I've read Customer-owned Networks: ZapMail and the Telecommunications Industry before, and perhaps you've seen it, but this essay is really crucial to understanding what will happen with the mobile phone carriers.
Right now they are concentrating on selling services at the expense of rebates and incentives on hardware, but I think that model is ultimately flawed.
It's similar to the reason that Apple gets it with the iTMS and other companies that are trying to rent music don't get it.
If you charge for services you have to make them make economic sense. Verizon charges me $5/month for unlimited picture messaging. Then my phone takes at minimum 9 button presses (more like 12-15 after selecting the picture and the recipient - that's without even giving it a name or subject!) to send each picture message, which I have to do one at a time. As a consequence I'm discouraged from actually using the feature. It also encouraged me to look into ways to get the pictures off my phone directly, thus circumventing Verizon's revenue model.
I haven't actually done it yet, but it seems that I can spend about $30 for a USB cable, download some freeware and then grab pictures off my phone in bulk with a couple mouse clicks in a couple minutes instead of waiting and waiting for the pictures to be sent over the air and the zillions of key presses just to send the damn things. Plus I avoid the ridiculous charges.
The carriers and the phone manufacturers think that people will primarily send photos one at a time to other mobile phone users, in which case $.25 a message and a dozen key presses doesn't seem that bad, but if you start to use your phone more like a camera, the model breaks down. Real digital cameras only cost money per use if you actually print pictures, and even the worst desktop software doesn't require anywhere near the number of interactions to download twenty pictures.
Basically people don't like trolls. It's not a very good business model. Users will figure out ways to route around them.
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