I'm sure that I must have come across Clay Shirky a few times in the past, but I've suddenly realized in a big way that he understands the growth and death of communities on the net better than most people. Well actually he just understands people and technology, period, better than most people. I recently wrote an entry here about an essay by Tom Coates called (Weblogs and) The Mass Amateurisation of (Nearly) Everything.... Looking back I see that he was playing off on an earlier essay by Shirky called Weblogs and the Mass Amateurization of Publishing.
After having read a dozen or so more of Shirky's essays, I have to say that this man gets it more than most people ever will. He simply looks at what has happened and reasons what will happen from that. Not what should happen. History repeats itself over and over. Human nature is surprisingly consistent. If you pay attention to it, you will notice patterns and be able to predict what will happen. The problem comes from people predicting what they want to happen, which often flies in the face of human nature.
His opinions on VoIP, grid computing, the music industry, and the size of communities are all very worthwhile. Actually everything of his that I've read so far clicks with this sort of sense of something that you've understood intuitively but maybe haven't put into words. At worst, some of it merely seems well reasoned, but not necessarily earth-shattering.
Highly recommended.
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